Must Read Article: "Russian Annexation of Belarus" by Thomas Graham

I recommend the article, "Russian Annexation of Belarus: Contingency Planning Memorandum," as the most comprehensive analysis of reasons why Russia might annex Belarus and the methods it could employ to do so. Author Thomas Graham, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, describes two possibilities for annexation: creeping and abrupt. Creeping annexation could involve the incremental erosion of Belarusian sovereignty (e.g. adoption of the Russian currency, integration of security services, increased Russian influence over Belarusian media and education) followed, ultimately, by formalized integration of Belarus into the Russian Federation. Abrupt annexation would, as the name suggests, involve a quick, coercive action to formalize Russian control of Belarus, involving Russian armed forces and a change in Belarusian leadership. (Spoiler alert - In my novel, I posit a third possibility: silent annexation, whereby Russia uses threats to the Belarusian president’s life to force him to do Russia’s bidding, along with a secret amendment to the Union State to formalize control. Silent annexation has the benefit of gaining control of Belarus without the resulting outcry by NATO and other concerned nations.)

Thomas also discusses the Trump administration's recent overtures to engage with Lukashenko. Thomas takes the view, which I’ve expressed on this blog, that Lukashenko needs to tread carefully. While a thaw in relations with the U.S. appears, on its surface to be of obvious benefit Belarus and could prove profitable to Lukashenko, any perception by the embattled Putin that Lukashenko is forsaking him for Trump and the West could spark Putin to hostile action to draw Belarus even closer (i.e. annexation).(https://www.cfr.org/reports/russian-annexation-of-belarus)