Does the Iran War Help or Hurt Russia?

Barely a week in to the Iran war it's too early to know how it will play out, but its never too early to speculate. For Russia, the impact is far from clear.

On Russia's credit column: the spiking price of oil is allowing Russia to rake in more rubles to fund its war in Ukraine. Additionally, the US, Israel and allies are using a lot a Patriot missiles to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks. The US is slow to make Patriots and Ukraine desperately needs them to keep its skies safe. Russia will most certainly take advantage of any shortfall in Ukraine's defensive missile stock.

On Russia's debit column: Russia's regional allies are falling fast. First Venezuela and now Iran. That's not to say the remaining governments will be thriving democracies - it's far too soon to know what will replace Maduro and the Ayatolla - but Russian friendship is proving to be dangerous friendship. Despite potential gains in Ukraine, Russia's ability to spread its influence beyond its next door neighbors might be fast diminishing.

One wild card, though, is Trump. He often finds a way to help his mentor, Putin, when he most needs it. There's nothing we can do but wait and watch.