German War Game Proves Worrisome

A recent article in Politico Magazine examines and explains a war game conducted by the German newspaper WELT in conjunction with the German Wargaming Center of the Helmut-Schmidt-University of the German Armed Forces. It starts with the assumption that Ukraine was forced into a peace deal this year, freeing up Russian soldiers for further mischief. Russia, not content with the status quo, sends troops to Belarus along Lithuania's border. Russia cooks up a human rights incident of German soldiers harassing ethnic Russians in Lithuania and, suddenly, in the interest of "peacekeeping" Russia sends troops in a pincer movement from both Belarus and its Kaliningrad oblast, taking the Lithuanian side of the Suwalki Gap. NATO has been invaded. What, the war gamers ask, will NATO do? Their answer: not much. In a fascinating step-by-step analysis of the decision making, we confront the sad realities facing NATO. First, until now, Germany and other NATO members could assume that the United States would cover the final rung of any escalation. Now, NATO members need to consider that should shooting begin, the United States would not be by their side. Second, Germany didn't seem to understand that dawdling now (i.e. letting Russia establish defensive positions in its newly seized land) can cost lives in the long run when you eventually do decide to retake it. And third, Germany failed to do the one thing that would have forced Russia to adjust its strategy: take military action. Hopefully, Germany and the rest of NATO take the lessons learned from this exercise to heart and start adjusting their strategy in the (likely) event Russia moves on NATO. (https://www.politico.com/news/2026/02/13/russia-nato-wargame-germany-simulation-00778818)